Black days: The worst day does not tell what comes next

Some days stay in the history books with a colour: black. Three of them tell almost the whole story.

Thursday the twenty-fourth of October nineteen twenty-nine. In New York, the market opens, and sell orders rain down.

Nearly thirteen million shares change hands, a record. The ticker tapes show prices hours late.

At noon, leading bankers meet and buy in bulk to reassure. The market recovers, for a few days.

The following Monday and Tuesday, the fall resumes, even harder. Then it goes on, month after month, for nearly three years.

Between the peak of September nineteen twenty-nine and summer nineteen thirty-two, the Dow Jones lost about eighty-nine per cent.

Ten thousand dollars became a little over one thousand. And it took until nineteen fifty-four to see the peak again.

So Black Thursday was not the worst. It was what came after that destroyed everything.

Monday the nineteenth of October nineteen eighty-seven. No war, no giant bankruptcy. And yet.

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In a single session, the Dow Jones lost twenty-two point six per cent. It is still its worst day today.

Ten thousand dollars invested in the morning were worth seven thousand seven hundred and forty by the evening.

To get back to the start, you then need to gain twenty-nine per cent. A fall is always repaired more slowly than it happens.

Part of the explanation: programs set to sell when the market falls all started selling together.

And then, the surprise. Less than two years later, the Dow Jones was back to its pre-crash level.

Monday the sixteenth of March two thousand twenty. The virus arrives, countries lock down, and nobody knows for how long.

At the open, the American market fell so fast that trading was halted for fifteen minutes. For the third time in eight days.

At the close, the Dow Jones had lost nearly thirteen per cent. The second worst session in its history, after nineteen eighty-seven.

A week later, the market hit bottom. Then it rose. In August, the main American index set a new record.

Three black days, three aftermaths. Nearly three years of falling, under two years to recover, five months to erase it all.

A black day does not tell what will follow. What counts is the real economy behind it, and how the authorities react.

In the thirties, thousands of American banks went bust. In two thousand twenty, central banks and governments opened the floodgates.

For you, the lesson is simple. The worst day comes without warning. What matters is not being forced to sell that day.

No money you will soon need in the market, no debt to buy shares. And the black day becomes just a date.